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David Crook shares his insights in the face of Volatility.
Greg Silberman discusses the Psychology of Offense in the U.S. Equity Markets
A Discussion with Atlanta Capital Group’s Chief Investment Officer, Greg Silberman, regarding Managing Risk and Pursuing Returns.
It is simple economics— when rates rise, fixed income securities associated with those rates usually suffer capital losses. A rising rate environment has more-or-less been absent from the US economy for the better part of the 4 decades, so what alternatives do investors have throughout this period? In this conversation with Greg Silberman we discuss strategies that could make sense for investors.
A brief conversation with Atlanta Capital Group’s Chief Investment Officer, Greg Silberman, about the strengthening of the US dollar versus a basket of currencies. With the recent developments with the Yuan, it is important to note that China is a centrally planned economy in which the government sets the exchange rate — unlike the majority of other currencies which are priced via the free-market as discussed in the video.
By all accounts this stock market bull has confounded the experts!The S&P 500 has risen 233% since the March 5th 2009 lows. In a months’ time, barring any unforeseen crisis, that would make this bull market 6 years old. Long by historic standards.
There is an oft quoted incident, an anecdote, used to explain Chinese patience and focus on the long-run. It goes like this: During Richard Nixon’s visit to China in February 1972, when asked the implications of the French revolution, premier Zhou Enlai famously said it was “too early to say.”
On Thursday, January 22nd Mario Draghi, the President of the European Central Bank, kept ECB rates unchanged AND announced monthly purchases of €60 billion until September 2016. This includes about €10 billion under existing programs so essentially €50 billion in new buying.
On the 7th February 1992 The Treaty on European Union was signed in Maastricht Netherlands with the express intent of achieving a complete Union of European states – socially, monetarily and on foreign policy.
It has been a curious recovery hasn’t it? Our hypothesis: Fed Induced Lower Interest Rates are creating Illusory Asset Price Gains From the depths of the 2008/09 lows the S&P 500 has rallied approximately 175% yet it seems a feeling of unease permeates:
It’s often said that the market is out to confuse as many people as possible. In 2014 we concede the Market Won!
Congratulations of finding those high growth stocks!
Most Americans who have lived in a large metropolitan area have come into contact with Jewish people and have thus been involved, either at the periphery or directly, in a Jewish Simcha or happy occasion.
It is often said you can glean more from a market’s rebound than its initial fall. The intermarket analysis has us worried:
It generally never helps being short-term focused.
Why do different asset classes exhibit such different behavioral patterns?
Consider fixed income analysis or commodities versus equities. Both have similar volatility characteristics over the long term (approximately 18% standard deviation per year) yet their nature is vastly different.
Arabian Nights aka. One Thousand and One Nights is a famous compilation of Arabic stories dating back to the Islamic Golden Age of 622 – 1258 CE.
In last week’s note entitled Voting Machine we mentioned that, in our opinion, equity markets were experiencing an intermediate correction which, if history proved any guide, could end around the 20-month moving average which is currently 1750 on the S&P 500.
On the 17th of May we published a note titled, “Time for Emerging Markets?”
War, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing as far as the song goes. In a prior market note we commented on one particular scenario which could paradoxically be good for investing in Emerging Market equities and that was an outbreak of War.
The VIX Index (fear indicator) seems to think so.The above monthly chart of the VIX indicates that we are closing in on the 2007 lows and we are well aware of what came next.
It is the nature of the market to confound as many participants as possible. So what is a Bull Market in 2014 onwards going to look like?
Let’s begin an emerging markets thesis by reviewing recent history in EM space as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index:
Who Would Have Thought The Federal Reserve Bank’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to do its best to debauch the dollar with their surprising announcement yesterday that the level of bond buying will remain the same for now; stunning inaction from unelected academics.
FOMC Meeting Concludes The Federal Reserve Bank’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to do its best to debauch the dollar and talk interest rates down.
FOMC: and then their tune changed Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Bernanke surprised markets during his post-FOMC meeting remarks yesterday – why?
Can Central Banks Maintain Low Rates The Federal Reserve Bank, under the guidance of Chairman Ben Bernanke, has guided and forced interest rates lower since 2008’s liquidity issues.
11th Hour House Vote “Averts” The Fiscal Cliff Equity markets globally, at least those that are open, are trading sharply higher this morning and U.S. Treasury yields have also risen steeply.
David Crook does a masterful job at demystifying the market: from quantitative easing to interest rates to the debt ceiling debate, from macro to mirco economics, David is one of the very best at helping the rest of us understand what is happening with the U.S. and global economies.